professional stock trading live
professional stock trading live
A disadvantage of back testing is that it can attract dealers in over-reliance on systems and how they have acted in the past.
There is always a danger of curve fitting and data mining to find a perfect system who have worked with a specific set of market conditions in the past that can never happen in the future. This is the problem of over confidence in the power of computing. It ignores the reality of the market as a complex adaptive system that never shows the same face twice.
Even if it takes a backtest with integrity and in full knowledge of the limits of its ability to predict the future is not uncommon to see a large gap between backtest results and actual results of trading live.
Some causes of this difference in results must be with backtests being in isolation and not as part of a comprehensive portfolio of strategies. Often backtests may use unrealistic values for sliding and commissions. Often not taken into account the human dimension of the implementation of a set of trade rules. Experience shows that a most important aspect neglected by the evidence behind.
Perhaps the biggest challenge back test is to understand the limits of its predictive power.
Some traders are so focused on the back of your test that can not be convinced by the evidence of results real they lost something important in your backtest. They may persist in the trade for a system that simply does not the real world. This can be attributed to the tendency of overconfidence associated with the need to be appropriate for yet succeed in the profession of commerce is the ability to act with incomplete knowledge and willingness to make mistakes, often resulting in the best results.
While testing new offers many advantages for the operator powerful professionals who will be undertaken with full recognition also limit its usefulness.
The professional operator to retrieve test results into consideration, as a means of choosing a prototype system for real money, real-time markets human factors fully committed to see what real-world outcomes appear before embarking risk on the total production system.
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